Invest 99L rapidly organizing, likely to become Atlantic's sixth named storm today amid strengthening El Niño
Invest 99L rapidly organizing, likely to become Atlantic's sixth named storm today amid strengthening El Niño
Julian Atienza Sat, September 19, 2026 at 11:08 AM UTC
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THE TAKEAWAY:
Invest 99L is being monitored for tropical development in the open Atlantic.
99L could become Tropical Depression Six.
The Atlantic hurricane season is off to its quietest start on record, dating to the beginning of the satellite era (1960).
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a new area to watch for tropical development in the open Atlantic that is highly likely to continue developing, amid a record-slow start to hurricane season.
This area to watch was designated Invest 99L on Friday morning several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.
Per the latest update from the NHC, Invest 99L has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
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Currently, Invest 99L sits in an area of the Atlantic that's conducive for development, where wind shear is low, and ocean temperatures are in the 80s.
The system is forecast to become Tropical Depression Six on Saturday, according to the NHC.
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Invest 99L will continue to stay southwest of the Azores as it slowly moves through the Atlantic, before a forecasted turn southwest early next week.
The NHC said conditions become less favorable for development after that on Sunday night or Monday.
Hostile El Niño-driven winds have suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season, which is off to its quietest start on record, dating to the beginning of the satellite era (1966), with just five named storms and no hurricanes thus far.
Unlike the typical tropical disturbances that emerge off the coast of Africa this time of year, Invest 99L is located in the subtropical Atlantic, well north of the current belt of hostile El Niño-driven winds.
The subtropical Atlantic lies outside the Main Development Region, or MDR — the primary hurricane belt.
Meanwhile, long-range forecasts are showing a Central American Gyre (CAG) beginning to set up sometime next week.
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The CAG is a sprawling area of low pressure near or over Central America that can produce locally heavy rain, rough surf, and mudslides, and can generate tropical systems in both the Gulf and Eastern Pacific.
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It is closely monitored because it can aid in tropical cyclone development and is most prevalent during late spring and early fall.
In fact, Idalia (2023) formed because of the Central American Gyre, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Additionally, the new Climate Prediction Centers 2-week tropical outlook shows the lower end potential for some development off the Southeast Coast and in the eastern portion of the Main Development Region.
Typically, El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear while having the opposite effect in the Pacific, where warmer ocean temperatures fuel increased activity.
That pattern has already played out across both oceans this year.
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Adding to that, forecasts indicate this could be a "super El Niño," potentially making it one of the strongest events on record.
The lack of storm activity has already rewritten history: The Atlantic has now broken the satellite-era record for the latest date without a single hurricane forming in a season.
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To put this historic slump into perspective, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. So far, there have been just five named storms, zero hurricanes and zero major hurricanes.
The next named storm in the Atlantic would be Fay.
Original article source:Invest 99L rapidly organizing, likely to become Atlantic's sixth named storm today amid strengthening El Niño
Source: “AOL Breaking”
